Reading the Numbers

What the Migration Data Says About San Clemente (and What It Doesn’t)

A plain-English guide to the public numbers on people moving to and from Orange County and San Clemente: what they show, what they cannot show and what to watch next.

Updated September 2026 · Rudy Flores · Coldwell Banker West

Headlines about people leaving California or Orange County usually rest on a few public data sets. Here is what those sets actually count, what they say about Orange County and about San Clemente’s ZIP codes, and where they run out. Then, because numbers are more useful with a plan, a checklist for anyone moving in or out.

Three sources, three questions

Every migration headline draws on one of three public data sets, and each answers a different question.

IRS county-to-county migration. The IRS compares the addresses on tax returns from one year to the next and counts the people (the filer, a spouse and dependents) whose county changed. It shows where people came from and where they went, by county and state. It is the best public picture of who moves between counties, but it leaves out people who do not file a return, and it hides very small flows.
Census Bureau population estimates. Each year the Census Bureau splits a county’s population change into births minus deaths, domestic migration and international migration. It shows the direction and size of the change but not the counties on the other end.
American Community Survey (ACS). A yearly survey that asks residents where they lived one year earlier. The five-year estimates are available for ZIP codes, so they are the only public source here that speaks to a single ZIP code.

Inside the ZIP code

Turnover by ZIP code

The Census Bureau asks residents where they lived one year earlier.

Residents by where they lived one year earlier

Share of residents aged one year and over, by where they lived one year earlier. Source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2020–2024.

Residence one year earlier
Area	Same home	Moved within the county	From another California county	From another state	From abroad
ZIP 92672 (San Clemente, north)	85.2%	7.5%	2.8%	2.7%	1.8%
ZIP 92673 (San Clemente, Talega and south)	92.0%	3.9%	1.5%	2.2%	0.4%
Orange County	88.9%	6.7%	2.6%	1.0%	0.8%

The turnover in ZIP 92672 over a year: 14.8% at a new address (countywide 11.1%). Of every 1,000 residents, about 27 arrived from another state, against about 10 in Orange County overall.

Survey estimates have a margin of error, and a small share of residents in a ZIP are new each year. The figures describe the residents, not the neighborhood’s character.

The big picture

How many people arrive and leave

Two public sources, the IRS and the Census Bureau, count moves into and out of Orange County.

People moving in and out of Orange County

People counted on tax returns (adults and their dependents) whose address changed between counties; grouped by where they came from or went. Source: IRS Statistics of Income.

Moves into and out of Orange County
Where from or to	Moved in 2022–2023	Moved out 2022–2023	Net 2022–2023	Net 2021–2022
Other California counties	61,291	62,507	−1,216	−880
Other states	28,533	49,058	−20,525	−28,968
Other countries	1,140	1,819	−679	+17
All moves	90,964	113,384	−22,420	−29,831

For 2022–2023 the tax-return data show 90,964 people moving in and 113,384 moving out of Orange County, which nets to −22,420. That is arrivals of about 2.9% of the population and departures of about 3.6%.

The Census estimate, year by year

Estimates for July 1 of each year; “net” is natural change plus domestic and international migration.

Population change in Orange County
Year	Population	Births minus deaths	Domestic migration	International migration	Net change
Year to July 1, 2022	3,156,252	+7,541	−27,754	+16,522	−11,232
Year to July 1, 2023	3,149,341	+7,204	−35,669	+21,406	−14,263
Year to July 1, 2024	3,158,027	+7,797	−22,482	+23,385	+903
Year to July 1, 2025	3,149,507	+7,721	−25,357	+9,161	−16,196

A second public source, the Census Bureau’s population estimates, shows the same direction. Domestic migration was −25,357 in the year to July 1, 2025, and international migration +9,161 (it was +23,385 the year before).

These are counts of people and households by place. They cannot say why anyone moved, and they leave out people who do not file a tax return. Small flows are grouped together by the IRS and not shown.

From and to

Who is on the other end of the move

County to county, 2022–2023, from IRS tax-return address changes.

Top counties people moved to

People who moved out of Orange County in 2022–2023, by the county they moved to. Top 8.

Top counties people moved from

People who moved into Orange County in 2022–2023, by the county they left. Top 8.

Both directions side by side

Flows under 10 tax returns are not published, which is why some cells say so.

Both directions, the biggest exchanges with Orange County
County	Moved in	Moved out	Net
Los Angeles, CA	31,420	23,952	+7,468
Riverside, CA	8,941	16,097	−7,156
San Bernardino, CA	5,104	6,498	−1,394
San Diego, CA	4,787	5,810	−1,023
Maricopa, AZ	1,482	2,978	−1,496
Clark, NV	1,384	2,966	−1,582
Santa Clara, CA	1,786	1,340	+446
King, WA	1,168	1,266	−98

The traffic is heaviest with Los Angeles, CA, which is on both sides of the ledger: 31,420 in and 23,952 out. The other end of the widest gap is Riverside, CA (−7,156).

Other states

The state-by-state picture

State totals add up the county-level flows for each state.

State by state: the biggest exchanges

People moving between Orange County and other states, 2022–2023, sorted by net change. Top 8.

Moves between Orange County and other states
State	Moved in	Moved out	Net
Texas	2,867	7,062	−4,195
Arizona	2,207	4,744	−2,537
Nevada	1,559	3,475	−1,916
Tennessee	222	1,713	−1,491
Florida	1,198	2,568	−1,370
Idaho	311	1,269	−958
Colorado	1,073	1,944	−871
Utah	724	1,510	−786

Moves across state lines were 28,533 in and 49,058 out. Texas is both the biggest partner (2,867 and 7,062) and the state with the largest net (−4,195).

What the data cannot say

Why anyone moved. A move to Riverside County or Texas might be about a job, a family, a house or a season of life. The counts do not carry reasons.
Who moved. The public tables count people by place. They are not an income or demographic profile, and this page does not use them that way.
City-level moves. The IRS publishes counties, not cities, so the flows above are for Orange County. Only the survey table speaks for San Clemente’s ZIP codes.
Small flows. The IRS hides moves between two places when fewer than ten returns are involved, so the lists show the big streams and leave out the trickles.
Direction of prices. Population movement is one influence on housing among many. Interest rates, new construction and jobs matter as much.

What to watch next

Each source updates on its own schedule. The IRS typically adds another year of county-to-county migration once a year, the Census Bureau updates its population estimates every December and spring, and the American Community Survey publishes new five-year estimates each December. When a new release arrives, this page is refreshed.

One useful habit: compare several sources before drawing a conclusion. The IRS and the Census Bureau use different methods, so they will not match exactly, but if they point in the same direction that is worth noting.

Differences to consider

What changes when you move here

The things newcomers most often ask about, with a place to start on each.

Side by side: what changes

General information for orientation. Confirm anything that matters with the official source, your lender and your agent.

Differences to consider when you move here
Topic	What to compare	Where to look or whom to ask
Property tax	California generally sets a home’s taxable value at its purchase price and lets it rise no more than 2% a year (Proposition 13). Many other states re-value homes more often, so a bill from your old home may not predict the new one.	The property tax estimator; the county assessor for a specific address.
Special taxes	Ask whether the home is inside a special tax district and what it costs each year. It is added to the tax bill and is separate from the 1% base.	Your agent and the title company’s report; the county tax bill.
Disclosures and reports	Sellers must give buyers written disclosures, including the Transfer Disclosure Statement and a Natural Hazard Disclosure. Buyers also commonly order a general home inspection and a wood-destroying pest (termite) report.	Your agent; the inspectors you choose.
Insurance	Ask an independent broker for a quote on the address, not the ZIP code. The premium belongs in the monthly budget beside taxes and HOA dues.	An independent insurance broker.
Getting around	Ask where your regular trips will go (work, airport, family) and time them at the hours you would really travel. Interstate 5 and the rail line run through San Clemente, so check the schedule as well as the map.	Try the drive at your own commute hour.

Checklist

The checklist

Practical steps for a move to the area, grouped by when to do them.

The move, step by step

Print this page or copy the list. Not every item applies to every move.

Three to six months out

Meet a lender before you tour seriously; a pre-approval letter tells you and sellers that you are ready.
Do not stop at the mortgage payment; add tax, insurance, HOA dues and any special assessments to see the real monthly figure.
If you are coming from another state: If you are relocating from a state without an income tax, ask a tax professional what California will change for you.
If you are coming from another country: Ask a lender what income and bank records they need, and how long it takes to document money coming from another country.
If you are selling and coming from elsewhere in California: Work out what your current home could net, with the seller net proceeds tool, and whether you need it sold before you buy.
If you are selling and coming from elsewhere in California: Ask the assessor about Proposition 19 before you list, if you are 55 or older, severely disabled or a disaster victim.
If you are renting: Decide how much rent is comfortable and when you will revisit buying; the rent-versus-buy tool shows both sides.
Spend time in the area on a weekday morning, a weekend and an evening, and drive the commute at rush hour.
If you are coming from another state: Ask how the home is heated and cooled; some older coastal homes have no air conditioning.

One to three months out

Set aside cash for closing costs (the closing cost tool gives a starting estimate) in addition to your down payment.
Request written quotes from a few movers, try the moving cost planner and confirm what their insurance covers.
If you are selling: Order the home’s permit history and gather HOA documents before you list.
If you are selling: Ask for a personal market report, then plan repairs, staging and photos.
Walk or drive the neighborhood and note the shops, parks, and services you would use each week.

Once you are under contract

Go through the disclosures line by line with your agent and note what to ask or inspect.
If there is an HOA, read its rules, budget and reserve study early.
Ask an independent broker for homeowners quotes on the exact address, and price earthquake or flood cover if you want it, before contingencies end.
Schedule the general inspection and the pest inspection right away, since contingency periods are short.

Move week

File a change of address with USPS and tell banks, insurers, your employer and any subscriptions.
Do the final walk-through just before closing and check that the agreed repairs are complete.
Confirm that your big pieces fit through the doors, and ask about moving-truck rules at your building or HOA.

Your first 30 days

Keep some cash aside for the supplemental property tax bill California sends after a purchase.
If you are coming from another state: Check the DMV: new residents are generally expected to get a California driver’s license within 10 days and register vehicles within 20.
Register to vote at your new address.
If you are coming from another country: Open a U.S. bank account, keep copies of your documents, and ask a lender how a U.S. credit history is built.
If you are renting: Keep your lease handy and note the notice period, deposit and renewal dates.
Change or re-key the locks, test the alarms and find the water shut-off and the electrical panel.
Arrange utilities and internet before move day and ask for a year of past bills.
If you are coming from elsewhere in California: Look up pet licensing and the local waste, recycling and street-sweeping rules.

How Rudy can help

You do not have to sort this out alone. Rudy Flores, a licensed agent with Coldwell Banker West (CalDRE #02257808), helps people relocating to San Clemente with three things: the local numbers, a realistic timeline, and introductions to the lender, inspector and insurance broker you will want on your side early.

If you are selling somewhere else first, he will help you plan the two closings so they fit together.

Common questions

Are people leaving Orange County?

In 2022–2023 the IRS counted more people leaving the county than arriving, and the Census estimates show net domestic migration below zero. The reasons are not in the data.

Does this apply to San Clemente?

Only partly. The county-level numbers describe Orange County. The survey table shows how many San Clemente residents lived elsewhere a year earlier.

Where can I find the raw data?

The sources are listed at the bottom of the page, and each is free to download.

A note on what this is

A word about what this is: a plain-English summary of public data and general California practice, written by a real estate agent (Rudy Flores, CalDRE #02257808, Coldwell Banker West). It says nothing about why any person or household moved. For advice about taxes, immigration or legal questions, please speak with a licensed professional.

Keep exploring

Market reports — Values, inventory and price cuts for the ZIP code.
Weekly and monthly updates — Dated updates on the local market.
San Clemente market handbook — How to read the local numbers.
Market watch by area — Numbers by area.
Moving cost planner — Estimate the cost of the move itself.
Prop 13 by the Numbers: Assessed vs. Market Value — How the property tax bill works after a purchase.

Talk to a lender. Rates, loan programs and approvals come from lenders, not from websites or real estate agents. Talk to your own mortgage broker, or use our preferred lender, Rodrigo Ballon with CrossCountry Mortgage, at 858-735-0255. You are always free to choose any lender you like, and you can verify any lender’s license at nmlsconsumeraccess.org.

Sources

General information for orientation, not legal, tax, financial or appraisal advice. Details change; confirm anything that matters with the official source, your lender and your agent.